Energy Sector's Crossroads: Renewable vs. Nuclear and the Hype

Oregon's Geothermal Gamble: Can "Superhot Rock" Power the Future, or Just Trigger Earthquakes?

The Promise of Superhot Geothermal

Oregon is placing a big bet on geothermal energy, specifically "superhot rock" geothermal. The idea is simple: drill deep into the earth – in this case, the Newberry Volcano – to tap into extremely high temperatures and generate electricity. Mazama Energy, the company spearheading the project, has already hit temperatures of 629 degrees Fahrenheit. Their goal? To reach well above 750 degrees.

The potential payoff is significant. Mazama aims to generate 15 megawatts of electricity next year, eventually scaling up to 200 megawatts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that superhot geothermal could theoretically generate 150 times more electricity than the world currently uses. That's a tantalizing figure, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Governor Tina Kotek's executive order is designed to accelerate the transition to renewable energy in Oregon. Latest Kotek climate order aims to speed up Oregon’s clean energy transition - OregonLive.com The order sets a goal of 8 gigawatts of energy storage by 2045 and aims to streamline the approval process for wind and solar projects. It also calls for a 50% reduction in the carbon intensity of Oregon fuels by 2040. Climate and clean energy advocates are predictably praising the move. But, as always, the devil is in the details.

The Devilish Details and Seismic Risks

Geothermal energy currently accounts for less than 1% of the world's electricity production. The IEA optimistically projects an increase to 8% by 2050. The problem? Conventional geothermal is limited to areas with both hot rocks and underground water. Superhot geothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) aim to overcome this limitation by either tapping into hotter rocks or bringing water to hot, dry rocks through engineered fractures.

This is where things get complicated. EGS projects have been built in several countries, including the US, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Japan. However, a Swiss experiment was shut down after triggering a 3.4 magnitude earthquake in 2006. And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: The Newberry site has already recorded five tremors in the past six months, with the largest reaching magnitude 2.5 on July 24. Is it just me, or is that a bit concerning?

Drilling into superhot rock presents significant engineering challenges. Experiments in Iceland and Hawaii were abandoned after hitting magma unexpectedly. Wells in Japan and Italy reached temperatures above 900 degrees Fahrenheit but were abandoned due to equipment failures. Will Mazama Energy avoid similar pitfalls? They're aiming for 750+ degrees, which is hot, but not magma-hot. Still, the risk is real.

Moreover, the economics need a hard look. A superhot geothermal well can produce five to ten times more energy than a conventional well. But how much more does it cost to drill and maintain? And what's the lifecycle cost analysis, accounting for potential seismic events or equipment failures? These are critical questions that need answering.

Oregon's legal framework is pushing for renewables. Investor-owned utilities must reduce emissions by 80% by 2030 and transition to 100% clean electricity by 2040. The Clean Fuels Program led to a reduction of approximately 3 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2024. Over the program's lifetime, since 2016, approximately 14.6 million metric tons of greenhouse gases have been reduced. Impressive numbers, but it's not enough.

The Hype Doesn't Match the Hazard Pay

The promise of superhot geothermal is undeniable – a potential source of clean, baseload power that could dwarf current production. But the risks are equally undeniable: seismic activity, engineering challenges, and economic uncertainties. Oregon is betting big, but it needs to do so with its eyes wide open, and with a clear understanding of the potential consequences. The current enthusiasm feels a bit premature, given the data.